ADM Crop Risk Services - Commodity Market News

March soybeans closed 1 1/4 cents higher on the session and 3 1/2 cents lower for the week. A negative tone to outside market forces plus follow-through sell ing from yesterday's weak technical action helped to drive the market moderately lower on the session early. A surge higher in the US dollar and weakness in energy and metal markets helped to pressure soybeans and other commodity market early in the session. Talk of improving weather in South America added to the negative tone. Talk of increased risk of Greek default helped to pressure the market as well. Private exporters reported a sale of 120,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China this morning which helped to provide some underlying support. Talk that parts of southern Brazil are still warm and dry helped to support the market late in the day to close higher on the session. The market found support on the early break to a 5-session low and the market managed to bounce to just slightly lower on the day into the mid-session. Click here for more information.

Corn Market Recap

March corn closed 5 1/4 cents lower on the session and down 12 3/4 cents for the week. The lower close for the week after positing a new high for the move is seen as a negative technical development. December corn pushed sharply lower and down to the lowest level since January 24th and closed 21 3/4 cents down for the week. Bearish outside market forces with a surge higher in the US dollar and weakness in energy and equity markets helped to pressure the market early in the day. Concerns on the Greek debt deal and further weakness in the wheat market helped pull the market lower early in the day but the market found support to bounce to near unchanged on the session into the mid-day. Private exporters reported a sale of 240,000 tonnes of US corn to Egypt this morning which helped to provide some underlying support. Click here for more information.

Wheat Market Recap

March wheat closed 16 cents lower on the session and fell 30 3/4 cents for the week. Bearish outside market forces with a surge up in the US dollar and weakness in the other commodity markets helped to pressure the market early. The set-back pushed the market down to the lowest level since January 24th before a bounce into the mid-session. Follow-through technical selling after the bearish USDA news yesterday added to the selling pressure. Record high world ending stocks and hefty soft red wheat stocks helped to pressure. Egypt announced a tender after the close. Click here for more information.

December 9, 2011

Soybeans Complex Recap

January soybeans closed sharply lower on the session and down 28 3/4 cents for the week. The early break pushed the market to the lowest level since October of 2010 but supportive outside market forces were enough to support a bounce off of the early test of 1100 and the market bounced up from the early lows into the midsession. Funds were noted as aggressive sellers for the week. The USDA supply/demand report was considered negative for soybeans and some traders believe the USDA did not cut exports by enough if the weather turns favorable for South America for the last 10 days of December. There are still some concerns for too much dryness in southern Brazil and Argentina for the next 10 days. The USDA pegged US soybean ending stocks at 230 million bushels as compared with trade expectations for 215 million bushels and compared with 195 million bushels from the November report and 160 million from the October report. This is a stocks/usage of 7.6% which is the highest since the 2006/07 season. Exports were revised down by 25 million bushels and crush down by 10 million. World ending stocks for the 2011/12 season came in at 64.54 million tonnes which is the second highest on record as compared with trade expectations near 63.0 million tonnes and 68.43 million last year. Global demand was revised down by about 1 million tonnes. Click here for more information.

Corn Market Recap

March corn closed moderately lower on the session and 1 cent lower on the week. The USDA supply/demand report update for December showed disappointing results against trade expectations and the report helped to push the market sharply lower on the session early today. However, supportive news from outside market fo rces was enough to support the market near yesterday's lows. The USDA pegged ending stocks for the 2011/12 season at 848 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 830 million and last months estimate of 843 million. Traders were looking for higher estimates for ethanol or feed usage but the USDA left these estimates unchanged from last month and total usage was down 5 million bushels. World ending stocks were adjusted sharply higher to 127.19 million tonnes from 121 .57 million last month and from 128.27 million last year. While the jump in ending stocks was seen as negative, world ending stocks/usage is still just 14.6% vs. 14% last month and th is is still the lowest since the 1973/74 season. Traders were looking for a slight increase in world ending stocks but did not expect a revision higher in corn production of 8.53 million tonnes led by a large adjustment higher in China to a record 191 .75 mill ion tonnes. US stocks/usage is still just 6.7% which is the second lowest on record and down from 8.6% last year and compares with 5% for the 95/96 season . Some dry weather concerns for the southern Brazil/Argentina corn crop for the next 10 days plus news that China was buying 12 million tonnes of corn for reserves from the ir producers were seen as positive underlying factors. Click here for more information.

Wheat Market Recap

March wheat closed 29 1/2 cents lower on the the week. Early selling drove March wheat to a new contract lows and nearby wheat futures to the lowest level since July of 2010. Funds were noted sellers again today. The USDA Supply/Demand report this morning was considered bearish as traders see continued stiff competition from other exporting countries as global wheat stocks continue to rise. US wheat ending stocks were pegged at 878 million bushels as compared with trade expectations near 830 million and 828 million bushels last month. Soft red ending stocks (Chicago wheat) were adjusted higher to a new record high of 259 million bushels. Hard winter stocks were also adjusted higher to 343 million bushels from 318 million last month. Exports were revised lower by 50 mill ion bushels. For the world report, 2011/12 ending stocks were pegged at 208.52 million tonnes as compared with trade expectations near 203 million and 202.6 million tonnes last month. This is a new ten year high. Australia, Argentina and Canada production was revised higher. The supportive outside market forces and a lack of new aggressive selling on the move to new contract lows supported a rally off of the early lows into the midsession and short-covering supported the market late in the day. Click here for more information.